Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.4
Lens xG
Expected goals
1.7
Marseille xG
74%
Both Teams to Score
78%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–1
8%
1–1
7%
2–2
7%
1–2
6%
3–1
6%
3–2
6%
Home
Lens
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.9 / 1.7
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Marseille
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.4 / 1.6
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Lens vs Marseille?
Lens is favored with a 53% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Lens's current form?
Lens have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Ligue 1 meetings, Lens won 3, drew 0, and Marseille won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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