Match Analysis

LensvsMarseille

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

44%
20%
36%
Lens winDrawMarseille win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.40
2.02Avg goals scored2.62
1.37Avg goals conceded1.73
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.1

Lens xG

Expected goals

1.9

Marseille xG

75%

Both Teams to Score

76%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

8%

1–1

7%

1–2

7%

2–2

7%

2–3

5%

3–1

5%

Home

Lens

Lens

DLWLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.4

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Marseille

Marseille

DLWLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.6 / 1.7

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Lens vs Marseille?

Lens is favored with a 44% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Lens's current form?

Lens have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Lens Win44%
Draw20%
Marseille Win36%
BTTS75%
Over 2.576%