Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.2
Lille xG
Expected goals
0.7
Troyes xG
48%
Both Teams to Score
75%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–0
11%
2–0
10%
4–0
9%
3–1
8%
2–1
7%
1–0
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $60K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Lille
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.5 / 0.7
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Troyes
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.4 / 2.6
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Lille vs Troyes?
Lille is favored with a 85% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Lille's current form?
Lille have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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