Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.9
Lyon xG
Expected goals
1
AJ Auxerre xG
62%
Both Teams to Score
87%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–0
7%
3–1
7%
4–0
7%
4–1
7%
2–0
6%
2–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $49K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Lyon
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
1.3 / 0.9
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
AJ Auxerre
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.6 / 3.4
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 4 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Lyon vs Aj Auxerre?
Lyon is favored with a 77% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Lyon's current form?
Lyon have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.9.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 4 Ligue 1 meetings, Lyon won 2, drew 2, and Aj Auxerre won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 87%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 4 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Ligue 1