Match Analysis

LyonvsMarseille

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

60%
23%
17%
Lyon winDrawMarseille win

Key Stats

1.60Points per game0.80
1.80Avg goals scored1.46
0.79Avg goals conceded1.23
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.7

Lyon xG

Expected goals

0.8

Marseille xG

45%

Both Teams to Score

46%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

14%

2–0

12%

1–1

11%

2–1

9%

0–0

8%

0–1

7%

Home

Lyon

Lyon

DLWWD

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.8 / 0.8

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Away

Marseille

Marseille

DWLLL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.2

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Lyon vs Marseille?

Lyon is favored with a 60% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Lyon's current form?

Lyon have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (14% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Lyon Win60%
Draw23%
Marseille Win17%
BTTS45%
Over 2.546%