Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.4
Marseille xG
Expected goals
1.2
Paris FC xG
23%
Both Teams to Score
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–1
24%
0–0
20%
0–2
15%
1–1
10%
1–0
8%
0–3
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $45K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Marseille
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.9 / 1.0
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Paris FC
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
1.6 / 0.2
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 2 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Marseille vs Paris Fc?
Paris FC is favored with a 45% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Marseille's current form?
Marseille have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 2 Ligue 1 meetings, Marseille won 1, drew 1, and Paris Fc won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (24% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 23%. Over 2.5 goals: 22%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (2 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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