Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2
Marseille xG
Expected goals
1.2
Toulouse xG
60%
Both Teams to Score
62%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
10%
2–1
10%
1–0
8%
2–0
8%
3–1
7%
1–2
6%
Home
Marseille
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.4 / 1.6
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Away
Toulouse
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
1.1 / 1.7
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Marseille vs Toulouse?
Marseille is favored with a 54% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Marseille's current form?
Marseille have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Ligue 1 meetings, Marseille won 3, drew 3, and Toulouse won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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