Match Analysis

ToulousevsTroyes

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

90%
7%
3%
Toulouse winDrawTroyes win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game0.80
1.97Avg goals scored0.55
1.44Avg goals conceded2.22
1–3–1Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

3.5

Toulouse xG

Expected goals

0.5

Troyes xG

38%

Both Teams to Score

76%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

3–0

13%

2–0

11%

4–0

11%

5–0

8%

3–1

7%

1–0

6%

Home

Toulouse

Toulouse

DDWDL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.4

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Away

Troyes

Troyes

DLLLW

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

0.5 / 2.2

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Toulouse vs Troyes?

Toulouse is favored with a 90% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Toulouse's current form?

Toulouse have recorded 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Toulouse Win90%
Draw7%
Troyes Win3%
BTTS38%
Over 2.576%