Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.7
Troyes xG
Expected goals
3.6
Lens xG
79%
Both Teams to Score
90%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–3
7%
1–4
6%
2–3
6%
1–2
5%
2–2
5%
2–4
5%
Home
Troyes
PPG
2.00
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Lens
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
3.6 / 1.5
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Troyes vs Lens?
Lens is favored with a 73% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Troyes's current form?
Troyes have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–3 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 90%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Ligue 1