Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.5
Arsenal xG
Expected goals
0.5
Chelsea xG
38%
Both Teams to Score
76%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–0
13%
2–0
11%
4–0
11%
5–0
8%
3–1
7%
1–0
6%
Home
Arsenal
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
1.9 / 0.3
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Away
Chelsea
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
2.3 / 2.2
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Arsenal is favored with a 80% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Arsenal's current form?
Arsenal have recorded 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 matches (3.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.5.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Arsenal won 3, drew 3, and Chelsea won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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