Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.5
Arsenal xG
Expected goals
0.3
Chelsea xG
25%
Both Teams to Score
73%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–0
16%
2–0
14%
4–0
14%
5–0
10%
1–0
8%
3–1
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $694K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Arsenal
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
1.8 / 0.1
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Away
Chelsea
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
3.0 / 2.3
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Arsenal is favored with a 81% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Arsenal's current form?
Arsenal have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.5.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Arsenal won 3, drew 3, and Chelsea won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (16% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Premier League