Aston Villavs
Manchester City
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.8
Aston Villa xG
Expected goals
3.4
Manchester City xG
53%
Both Teams to Score
79%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–3
10%
0–2
9%
0–4
8%
1–3
8%
1–2
7%
1–4
7%
Home
Aston Villa
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
1.2 / 1.8
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
Manchester City
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
2.8 / 0.8
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Manchester City is favored with a 86% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Aston Villa's current form?
Aston Villa have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.8.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–3 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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