Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.1
Brentford xG
Expected goals
1.9
Chelsea xG
81%
Both Teams to Score
88%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–1
6%
2–2
6%
3–1
6%
3–2
6%
4–1
5%
4–2
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $33K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Brentford
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.7 / 1.1
Last 5
2W 3D 0L
Away
Chelsea
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
2.3 / 2.2
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Brentford vs Chelsea?
Brentford is favored with a 51% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Brentford's current form?
Brentford have recorded 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.1.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Brentford won 1, drew 3, and Chelsea won 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (6% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 81%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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