Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.8
Chelsea xG
Expected goals
1.5
Hull City xG
73%
Both Teams to Score
80%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–1
8%
3–1
7%
1–1
6%
2–2
6%
3–2
6%
2–0
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $15K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Chelsea
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
2.5 / 2.2
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Hull City
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
0.9 / 0.0
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Chelsea vs Hull City?
Chelsea is favored with a 66% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Chelsea's current form?
Chelsea have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.8.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Premier League