Chelsea vs Manchester United
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.2
Chelsea xG
Expected goals
2.8
Manchester United xG
90%
Both Teams to Score
94%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–2
5%
2–3
5%
3–2
5%
3–3
5%
2–1
4%
3–1
4%
Home
Chelsea
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
2.3 / 2.2
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Manchester United
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.6
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Chelsea is favored with a 45% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Chelsea's current form?
Chelsea have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.2.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Chelsea won 2, drew 1, and Manchester United won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–2 (5% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 90%. Over 2.5 goals: 94%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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