Everton vs Manchester United
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.5
Everton xG
Expected goals
1.1
Manchester United xG
52%
Both Teams to Score
48%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
12%
1–0
11%
2–1
9%
0–1
8%
2–0
8%
0–0
7%
Home
Everton
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.1 / 0.9
Last 5
2W 3D 0L
Away
Manchester United
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.6
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Everton vs Manchester United?
Everton is favored with a 39% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Everton's current form?
Everton have recorded 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Everton won 1, drew 1, and Manchester United won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Premier League