Everton vs Manchester United
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2
Everton xG
Expected goals
1.6
Manchester United xG
69%
Both Teams to Score
70%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
9%
2–1
9%
1–2
7%
2–2
7%
3–1
6%
1–0
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $4.8M volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Everton
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.3 / 0.8
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Manchester United
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
2.6 / 1.7
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Everton vs Manchester United?
Manchester United is favored with a 41% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Everton's current form?
Everton have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Everton won 1, drew 1, and Manchester United won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Premier League