Leeds United vs Newcastle United
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.3
Leeds United xG
Expected goals
1.1
Newcastle United xG
64%
Both Teams to Score
81%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–1
8%
2–0
7%
2–1
7%
3–0
7%
4–1
7%
4–0
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $107K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Leeds United
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
1.8 / 0.9
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
Newcastle United
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
1.6 / 2.1
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 2 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
Leeds United is favored with a 64% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Leeds United's current form?
Leeds United have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 2 Premier League meetings, Leeds United won 0, drew 1, and Newcastle United won 1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (2 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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