Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.3
Liverpool xG
Expected goals
1.3
Arsenal xG
19%
Both Teams to Score
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–1
26%
0–0
20%
0–2
17%
1–1
8%
0–3
7%
1–0
6%
Home
Liverpool
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.4 / 0.9
Last 5
2W 3D 0L
Away
Arsenal
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
1.9 / 0.3
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Arsenal is favored with a 50% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Liverpool's current form?
Liverpool have recorded 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Liverpool won 1, drew 4, and Arsenal won 1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (26% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 22%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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