Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.4
Liverpool xG
Expected goals
1.3
Fulham xG
70%
Both Teams to Score
85%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–1
8%
2–1
7%
4–1
7%
3–0
6%
2–0
5%
3–2
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $21K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Liverpool
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.9 / 1.4
Last 5
1W 3D 1L
Away
Fulham
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.4 / 2.1
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Liverpool vs Fulham?
Liverpool is favored with a 70% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Liverpool's current form?
Liverpool have recorded 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Liverpool won 3, drew 2, and Fulham won 1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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