Manchester Cityvs
Brighton & Hove Albion
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.7
Manchester City xG
Expected goals
1.9
Brighton & Hove Albion xG
70%
Both Teams to Score
70%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
9%
1–2
8%
2–1
8%
2–2
7%
0–1
5%
0–2
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $44K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Manchester City
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
2.5 / 1.3
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Brighton & Hove Albion
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
2.7 / 0.8
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Brighton & Hove Albion is favored with a 42% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Manchester City's current form?
Manchester City have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
More from Premier League