Match Analysis

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

78%
14%
8%
Manchester United winDrawAston Villa win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game0.80
1.76Avg goals scored0.37
1.63Avg goals conceded1.62
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.4

Manchester United xG

Expected goals

0.4

Aston Villa xG

30%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

20

18%

10

15%

30

14%

40

8%

21

7%

00

6%

Home

Manchester United

Manchester United

LWDWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.6

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

LWDLL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

0.4 / 1.6

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Manchester Unitedall timeAston Villa
4W
1D
1W
15 Mar 26
Manchester United31Aston Villa
21 Dec 25
Aston Villa21Manchester United
25 May 25
Manchester United20Aston Villa
6 Oct 24
Aston Villa00Manchester United
11 Feb 24
Aston Villa12Manchester United
26 Dec 23
Manchester United32Aston Villa

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

Manchester United is favored with a 78% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Manchester United's current form?

Manchester United have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.4.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Manchester United won 4, drew 1, and Aston Villa won 1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (18% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Manchester United Win78%
Draw14%
Aston Villa Win8%
BTTS30%
Over 2.553%