Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model4
Newcastle United xG
Expected goals
1.1
Aston Villa xG
65%
Both Teams to Score
88%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–0
7%
3–1
7%
4–0
7%
4–1
7%
5–1
6%
2–0
5%
Home
Newcastle United
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.7
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
Aston Villa
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.0 / 3.0
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle United is favored with a 77% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Newcastle United's current form?
Newcastle United have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Newcastle United won 3, drew 1, and Aston Villa won 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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