Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.4
Sunderland xG
Expected goals
1.3
Arsenal xG
24%
Both Teams to Score
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–1
24%
0–0
18%
0–2
15%
1–1
9%
0–3
7%
1–0
7%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $37K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Sunderland
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
1.2 / 1.0
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Arsenal
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
1.9 / 0.4
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Head-to-Head · Last 2 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Sunderland vs Arsenal?
Arsenal is favored with a 59% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Sunderland's current form?
Sunderland have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 2 Premier League meetings, Sunderland won 0, drew 1, and Arsenal won 1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (24% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 24%. Over 2.5 goals: 24%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (2 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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