Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.3
AS Roma xG
Expected goals
0.3
Atalanta xG
25%
Both Teams to Score
70%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–0
16%
2–0
15%
4–0
14%
1–0
9%
5–0
9%
3–1
5%
Home
AS Roma
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
3.1 / 0.3
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Away
Atalanta
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.2 / 1.3
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win As Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma is favored with a 69% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is As Roma's current form?
As Roma have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Serie A meetings, As Roma won 0, drew 2, and Atalanta won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (16% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Serie A