Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2
AS Roma xG
Expected goals
0.3
Atalanta xG
22%
Both Teams to Score
40%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
20%
2–0
20%
3–0
13%
0–0
10%
4–0
7%
1–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $582K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
AS Roma
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
3.6 / 0.1
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Away
Atalanta
PPG
2.20
Avg goals
1.4 / 0.6
Last 5
3W 2D 0L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win As Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma is favored with a 59% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is As Roma's current form?
As Roma have recorded 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 matches (3.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Serie A meetings, As Roma won 0, drew 2, and Atalanta won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (20% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Serie A