Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.8
Atalanta xG
Expected goals
0.7
Bologna xG
42%
Both Teams to Score
46%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
15%
2–0
13%
1–1
10%
2–1
9%
0–0
8%
3–0
8%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $88K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Atalanta
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
1.7 / 1.1
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
Bologna
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
0.8 / 1.1
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta is favored with a 57% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Atalanta's current form?
Atalanta have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.8.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Serie A meetings, Atalanta won 2, drew 1, and Bologna won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (15% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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