Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.4
Atalanta xG
Expected goals
0.6
Cagliari xG
15%
Both Teams to Score
8%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–0
37%
0–1
22%
1–0
15%
1–1
9%
0–2
7%
1–2
3%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $231K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Atalanta
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
1.2 / 1.0
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Cagliari
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
0.8 / 0.4
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Cagliari is favored with a 34% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Atalanta's current form?
Atalanta have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Serie A meetings, Atalanta won 3, drew 1, and Cagliari won 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (37% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 15%. Over 2.5 goals: 8%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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