Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.7
Bologna xG
Expected goals
1.2
Sassuolo xG
35%
Both Teams to Score
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–1
18%
0–0
15%
1–1
13%
0–2
11%
1–0
10%
1–2
8%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $63K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Bologna
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
0.5 / 1.2
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Sassuolo
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.4 / 1.6
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 4 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Sassuolo is favored with a 37% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Bologna's current form?
Bologna have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.7.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 4 Serie A meetings, Bologna won 2, drew 2, and Sassuolo won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (18% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 4 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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