Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.2
Cagliari xG
Expected goals
0.5
Lecce xG
27%
Both Teams to Score
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
22%
0–0
18%
2–0
13%
1–1
11%
0–1
9%
2–1
7%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $835K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Cagliari
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
0.7 / 0.6
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Lecce
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.1 / 1.9
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Cagliari vs Lecce?
Cagliari is favored with a 48% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Cagliari's current form?
Cagliari have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Serie A meetings, Cagliari won 2, drew 2, and Lecce won 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (22% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 27%. Over 2.5 goals: 24%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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