Match Analysis

Fiorentina vs Napoli

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

18%
18%
64%
Fiorentina winDrawNapoli win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game1.20
1.40Avg goals scored1.45
2.59Avg goals conceded1.20
2–0–3Record (W–D–L)2–0–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Fiorentina xG

Expected goals

2.5

Napoli xG

67%

Both Teams to Score

73%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

12

9%

13

8%

02

7%

11

7%

01

6%

03

6%

Home

Fiorentina

Fiorentina

WLLLW

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.4 / 2.6

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Away

Napoli

Napoli

WLLLW

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.4 / 1.2

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Fiorentinaall timeNapoli
1W
1D
4W
31 Jan 26
Napoli21Fiorentina
13 Sep 25
Fiorentina13Napoli
9 Mar 25
Napoli21Fiorentina
4 Jan 25
Fiorentina03Napoli
17 May 24
Fiorentina22Napoli
8 Oct 23
Napoli13Fiorentina

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Fiorentina vs Napoli?

Napoli is favored with a 64% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Fiorentina's current form?

Fiorentina have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Serie A meetings, Fiorentina won 1, drew 1, and Napoli won 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Fiorentina Win18%
Draw18%
Napoli Win64%
BTTS67%
Over 2.573%