Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.3
Lecce xG
Expected goals
1
AS Roma xG
16%
Both Teams to Score
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–0
27%
0–1
27%
0–2
14%
1–0
8%
1–1
8%
0–3
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $287K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Lecce
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.8 / 0.4
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
AS Roma
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
3.4 / 0.2
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Lecce vs As Roma?
AS Roma is favored with a 59% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Lecce's current form?
Lecce have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Serie A meetings, Lecce won 0, drew 1, and As Roma won 5.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (27% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 16%. Over 2.5 goals: 14%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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