Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.6
Lecce xG
Expected goals
1.6
Monza xG
64%
Both Teams to Score
62%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
10%
1–2
8%
2–1
8%
0–1
7%
1–0
7%
2–2
7%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $335K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Lecce
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
0.7 / 1.6
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Away
Monza
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.3 / 2.5
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 4 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Lecce vs Monza?
Lecce is favored with a 35% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Lecce's current form?
Lecce have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.6.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 4 Serie A meetings, Lecce won 1, drew 3, and Monza won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 4 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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