Match Analysis

Lecce vs Monza

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

35%
37%
28%
Lecce winDrawMonza win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game1.40
0.73Avg goals scored1.33
1.63Avg goals conceded2.55
2–0–3Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.6

Lecce xG

Expected goals

1.6

Monza xG

64%

Both Teams to Score

62%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

11

10%

12

8%

21

8%

01

7%

10

7%

22

7%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $335K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Lecce
35%
0%
+35%
Draw
37%
Monza
28%
100%
-72%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

Lecce

Lecce

LLWLW

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

0.7 / 1.6

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Away

Monza

Monza

DWLLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.3 / 2.5

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 4 meetings

Lecceall timeMonza
1W
3D
16 Feb 25
Monza00Lecce
15 Dec 24
Lecce21Monza
27 Apr 24
Lecce11Monza
17 Sep 23
Monza11Lecce

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Lecce vs Monza?

Lecce is favored with a 35% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Lecce's current form?

Lecce have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.6.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 4 Serie A meetings, Lecce won 1, drew 3, and Monza won 0.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 4 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Lecce Win35%
Draw37%
Monza Win28%
BTTS64%
Over 2.562%

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