Match Analysis

MonzavsAC Milan

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

27%
20%
53%
Monza winDrawAC Milan win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game1.80
1.46Avg goals scored2.16
2.17Avg goals conceded1.31
1–0–4Record (W–D–L)3–0–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.6

Monza xG

Expected goals

2.3

AC Milan xG

72%

Both Teams to Score

75%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–2

9%

1–1

7%

1–3

7%

2–2

7%

2–1

6%

0–1

5%

Home

Monza

Monza

LLLLW

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

1.5 / 2.2

Last 5

1W 0D 4L

Away

AC Milan

AC Milan

WLWLW

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

2.2 / 1.3

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Monza vs AC Milan?

AC Milan is favored with a 53% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Monza's current form?

Monza have recorded 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.6.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 11 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Monza Win27%
Draw20%
AC Milan Win53%
BTTS72%
Over 2.575%