Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.7
Monza xG
Expected goals
1.8
Cagliari xG
42%
Both Teams to Score
46%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–1
15%
0–2
13%
1–1
10%
1–2
9%
0–0
8%
0–3
8%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $27K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Monza
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.5 / 2.5
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Cagliari
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
1.0 / 0.6
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Monza vs Cagliari?
Cagliari is favored with a 65% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Monza's current form?
Monza have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.7.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (15% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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