Match Analysis

MonzavsFiorentina

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

54%
18%
28%
Monza winDrawFiorentina win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.60
1.47Avg goals scored1.18
2.46Avg goals conceded2.37
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–2–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.7

Monza xG

Expected goals

2

Fiorentina xG

81%

Both Teams to Score

85%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

7%

2–2

7%

3–1

6%

3–2

6%

1–1

5%

1–2

5%

Home

Monza

Monza

LWLDW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.5 / 2.5

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Fiorentina

Fiorentina

DLDWW

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.2 / 2.4

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Monza vs Fiorentina?

Monza is favored with a 54% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Monza's current form?

Monza have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.7.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 81%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Monza Win54%
Draw18%
Fiorentina Win28%
BTTS81%
Over 2.585%