Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.9
Napoli xG
Expected goals
1
Bologna xG
54%
Both Teams to Score
55%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
10%
1–1
10%
2–0
10%
2–1
10%
0–0
6%
0–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $1.5M volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Napoli
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.7 / 1.6
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Away
Bologna
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
0.9 / 1.4
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Napoli vs Bologna?
Napoli is favored with a 49% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Napoli's current form?
Napoli have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.9.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Serie A meetings, Napoli won 1, drew 2, and Bologna won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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