Match Analysis

NapolivsLecce

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

75%
17%
8%
Napoli winDrawLecce win

Key Stats

1.60Points per game0.80
1.38Avg goals scored0.98
0.91Avg goals conceded2.07
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.3

Napoli xG

Expected goals

0.6

Lecce xG

41%

Both Teams to Score

55%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–0

15%

1–0

13%

3–0

11%

2–1

9%

1–1

8%

3–1

7%

Home

Napoli

Napoli

DLWDW

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.4 / 0.9

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Away

Lecce

Lecce

DLWLL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.0 / 2.1

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Napoli vs Lecce?

Napoli is favored with a 75% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Napoli's current form?

Napoli have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (15% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Napoli Win75%
Draw17%
Lecce Win8%
BTTS41%
Over 2.555%