Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.6
Parma xG
Expected goals
1.7
Monza xG
37%
Both Teams to Score
40%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–1
17%
0–2
14%
0–0
10%
1–1
10%
1–2
9%
0–3
8%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $25K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Parma
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
0.2 / 1.5
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Away
Monza
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.5 / 3.5
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Head-to-Head · Last 2 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Parma vs Monza?
Monza is favored with a 50% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Parma's current form?
Parma have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.6.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 2 Serie A meetings, Parma won 1, drew 1, and Monza won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (17% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (2 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Serie A